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Dlouhodobá reálná apreciace jako fenomén ekonomické konvergence
[A Long-Term Real Appreciation as the Phenomenon of Economic Convergence]

Author

Listed:
  • Luboš Komárek
  • Kamila Koprnická
  • Petr Král

Abstract

The paper discusses the phenomenon of long-term real equilibrium appreciation of the koruna in the context of economic, i.e. nominal and real convergence. The real appreciation can take place either through a nominal exchange rate channel or through inflation differential channel vis-á-vis the reference country, or through a combination of those two channels. However, the choice of monetary policy regime predetermines the occurrence and intensity of those channels. Subsequently, the paper summarizes the sources of equilibrium real appreciation, i.e. Balassa-Samuelson effect, the effect of terms of trade, FDI inflows, the impact of changes in the structure of domestic consumption and the effect of state administrative prices. It also presents range of models which are applicable for estimation of equilibrium (real) exchange rate. Finally, the paper presents and discusses trajectory of equilibrium real appreciation resulting from models of the CNB (QPM, g3 and others).

Suggested Citation

  • Luboš Komárek & Kamila Koprnická & Petr Král, 2010. "Dlouhodobá reálná apreciace jako fenomén ekonomické konvergence [A Long-Term Real Appreciation as the Phenomenon of Economic Convergence]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(1), pages 70-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2010:y:2010:i:1:id:720:p:70-91
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.720
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vladislav Flek & Lenka Marková & Jiøí Podpiera, 2003. "Sectoral Productivity and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Much Ado about Nothing?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 53(3-4), pages 130-153, March.
    2. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
    3. Borut Vojinović & Žan Jan Oplotnik, 2008. "Real convergence in the new eu member states," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(1), pages 23-39.
    4. Roman Horváth & Luboš Komárek, 2007. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Eu New Members: Methodology, Estimation and Applicability to ERM II," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(1), pages 24-37.
    5. J. David López-Salido & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2006. "Comparative analysis: real convergence, cyclical synchrony and inflation differentials," Other publications, in: The analysis of the Spanish Economy, chapter 15, pages 409-433, Banco de España.
    6. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1991. "Structural Determinants of Real Exchange Rates and National Price Levels: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 325-334, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; Czech Republic; real appreciation; Equilibrium exchange rate; Czech National Bank;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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