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Local projections in unstable environments: How effective is fiscal policy?

Author

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  • Barbara Rossi

    (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

Abstract

The paper develops a local projection estimator for estimating impulse responses in the presence of time variation. Importantly, we allow local instabilities in both slope coefficients and variances. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate that the method performs well in practice. Using our proposed estimator, we shed new light on the effects of fiscal policy shocks and the size of government spending multipliers. Our analysis uncovers the existence of instabilities that were unaccounted for in previous studies, and links time variation in the multipliers to the size of government debt.
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Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Rossi, 2022. "Local projections in unstable environments: How effective is fiscal policy?," Economics Virtual Symposium 2022 02, Stata Users Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:boc:econ22:02
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    Cited by:

    1. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara & Wang, Yiru, 2024. "Has the Phillips Curve Flattened?," CEPR Discussion Papers 18846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Francisco Blasques & Noah Stegehuis, 2024. "A Score-Driven Filter for Causal Regression Models with Time- Varying Parameters and Endogenous Regressors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-016/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Fredy Gamboa-Estrada & José Vicente Romero, 2024. "Geopolitical Risk and Emerging Markets Sovereign Risk Premia," Borradores de Economia 1282, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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