IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Growth Horizons for a Changing Asian Regional Economy

Listed author(s):
  • Roland-Holst, David

    ()

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Sugiyarto, Guntur

    ()

    (Asian Development Bank)

Registered author(s):

    After two generations of economic growth, the next phase of structural transformation for Asia will have several salient features. Our results suggest that no single policy orientation, pathway, or even destination will apply to all economies. The main driver for each economy’s structural change will be demand, both domestic and external. These demand sources can have very different sector emphasis, however, and drive domestic resource allocation in different directions. Asian economies with high export shares will be drawn to more intensive primary and industrial resource allocation, while those with larger domestic demand shares will become more service-oriented. Our long-term forecasts for the Asian economies suggest that factor productivity growth continues to be essential to improving livelihoods generally and promoting regional convergence in particular. Of particular importance is potential for reducing regional inequality through more inclusive growth—productivity improvements are more cost-effective in lower-income countries and they have a bigger relative income dividend. Our research also reveals that services are essential contributors to average living standards in high-, medium-, and even low-income Asian economies. For this reason, policies that improve the efficiency of service sector labor allocation, as well as skill and productivity improvements via determined education and training programs, will be essential to sustaining higher living standards and transition to long-term growth sustained by demand from an ever-expanding middle class.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2014/ewp-392.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series ADB Economics Working Paper Series with number 392.

    as
    in new window

    Length: 55 pages
    Date of creation: 01 Mar 2014
    Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0392
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    P.O. Box 789, Manila

    Fax: (63-2) 636-2648
    Web page: http://www.adb.org
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as
    in new window


    1. Philippe Aghion & Diego Comin & Peter Howitt & Isabel Tecu, 2016. "When Does Domestic Savings Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 381-407, August.
    2. Saul Estrin & Stepana Lazarova & Giovanni Urga, 2001. "Convergence in Transition Countries – Focus on Investment: Central and Eastern Europe, 1970–1996," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 215-230, October.
    3. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2010. "Productivity Analysis in Global Manufacturing Production," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_019, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    4. Young, Andrew T. & Higgins, Matthew J. & Levy, Daniel, 2013. "Heterogeneous convergence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 238-241.
    5. Massimo Florio, 1997. "The economic rate of return of infrastructures and regional policy in the European Union," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 39-64, 03.
    6. Michael Carter & Christopher Barrett, 2006. "The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 178-199.
    7. Bardhan, Pranab, 1996. "Efficiency, Equity and Poverty Alleviation: Policy Issues in Less Developed Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1344-1356, September.
    8. Baumol, William J & Blackman, Sue Anne Batey & Wolff, Edward N, 1985. "Unbalanced Growth Revisited: Asymptotic Stagnancy and New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 806-817, September.
    9. Eberhardt, Markus & Teal, Francis, 2008. "Modeling technology and technological change in manufacturing: how do countries differ?," MPRA Paper 10690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gramlich, Edward M, 1994. "Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1176-1196, September.
    11. Barro, Robert J, 1999. "Notes on Growth Accounting," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 119-137, June.
    12. Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1997. "Growth and Convergence in Multi-country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 357-392, July-Aug..
    13. Gaurav Datt & Martin Ravallion, 1998. "Farm productivity and rural poverty in India," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 62-85.
    14. Lusigi, Angela & McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer R. & Thirtle, Colin G., 2000. "Is African agriculture converging? Evidence from a panel of crop yields," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 39(1), March.
    15. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 600-621, June.
    16. Begu Liviu-Stelian & Teodorescu Irina-Teodora & Dimidov Ioana-Catalina & Istrate Ionut, 2010. "Analysis Of Convergence Within The European Union - Sigma And Beta Convergence," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 482-485, December.
    17. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, December.
    18. Jha, Shikha & Roland-Holst, David & Sriboonchitta, Songsak, 2010. "Regional Trade Opportunities for Asian Agriculture," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 191, Asian Development Bank.
    19. repec:lje:journl:v:1:y:2007:i:1:p:1-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Temple, Jonathan R. W., 2001. "Generalizations that aren't? Evidence on education and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 905-918, May.
    21. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    22. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2010. "The Developing World is Poorer than We Thought, But No Less Successful in the Fight Against Poverty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1577-1625.
    23. A.R. Kemal & Abdul Qayyum & Muhammad Nadim Hanif, 2007. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Heterogeneous Panel of High Income Countries," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, Jan-Jun.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0392. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maria Susan M. Torres)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.