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Altitude or hot air?


  • Chumacero, Romulo


This paper uses several econometric models to evaluate the determinants of the outcomes of the World Cup Qualifying matches played in South America. It documents the relative importance of home-field advantage and other factors. Contrary to popular belief, altitude appears not to be an important factor behind the outcome or score of a match.

Suggested Citation

  • Chumacero, Romulo, 2007. "Altitude or hot air?," MPRA Paper 15178, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15178

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Karlis, Dimitris & Ntzoufras, Ioannis, 2005. "Bivariate Poisson and Diagonal Inflated Bivariate Poisson Regression Models in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 14(i10).
    2. Babatunde Buraimo & David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2007. "The Twelfth Man? Refereeing Bias in English and German Soccer," Working Papers 0707, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    3. Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
    4. D Dyte & S R Clarke, 2000. "A ratings based Poisson model for World Cup soccer simulation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(8), pages 993-998, August.
    5. Goddard, John, 2005. "Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 331-340.
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    1. Después de 60 años sin crecimiento económico: a ponerle el cascabel, pero ¿a qué gato?
      by (Jose P Mauricio Vargas) in Foro para una Nueva Economía on 2012-05-08 06:59:00


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    Cited by:

    1. Ángel Acevedo-Duque & Tohtli Prado-Sabido & Tatiana Gomes Ramires & Luiz Vicente Ovalles-Toledo & Lidyeth Azucena Sandoval Barraza & Rina Álvarez-Becerra & Gonzalo R. Llanos-Herrera, 2022. "New Year’s Eve Show: An Opportunity to Further Develop Sustainable Local Tourism in Chile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Jorge Tovar, 2014. "Gasping for Air: Soccer players’ performance at high-altitude," Documentos CEDE 11949, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Agustin Casas & Yarine Fawaz, 2016. "Altitude as handicap in rank-order football tournaments," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 180-183, February.
    4. Tovar Jorge, 2014. "Gasping for air: soccer players’ passing behavior at high-altitude," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-10, December.

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    More about this item


    Bivariate Poisson; Ordered Probit; Football Match Results;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities


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