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OPTIM : un outil de prévision trimestrielle du PIB de la France

Author

Listed:
  • BARHOUMI, K.
  • BRUNHES-LESAGE, V.
  • DARNÉ, O.
  • FERRARA, L.
  • PLUYAUD, B.
  • ROUVREAU, B.

Abstract

Le modèle OPTIM permet de prévoir, chaque mois, les taux de croissance du PIB de la France et de ses principales composantes, pour le trimestre en cours et le trimestre suivant. Ce modèle mobilise un large éventail de données macro-économiques mensuelles et de données d’enquête, sélectionnées par une procédure statistique automatique.

Suggested Citation

  • Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L. & Pluyaud, B. & Rouvreau, B., 2008. "OPTIM : un outil de prévision trimestrielle du PIB de la France," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 171, pages 31-42.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:bullbf:2008:171:02
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    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/bulletin-de-la-banque-de-france_171_2008-03.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prévision; taux de croissance du PIB; modèle d’étalonnage; approche “general-to-specific”.;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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