Neural Network Models for Inflation Forecasting: An Appraisal
We assess the power of artificial neural network models as forecasting tools for monthly inflation rates for 28 OECD countries. For short out-of-sample forecasting horizons, we find that, on average, for 45% of the countries the ANN models were a superior predictor while the AR1 model performed better for 21%. Furthermore, arithmetic combinations of several ANN models can also serve as a credible tool for forecasting inflation.
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