Bankruptcy Predictions for Air Carriers: Global Market

Airlines are subject to a set of internal and external risks and also have a considerable impact on world economy, being responsible for mobility of the population and the movement of loads. Despite a significant role the industry of civil air transportation is low-marginal, and financial stability of airlines often is under the threat. Since the beginning of autumn 2019 in Europe the number of bankrupt airlines has been growing. Thus, the number of carriers claiming inability to perform duties to clients due to financial problems reached five airlines in the first month of autumn: Thomas Cook Airlines and Thomas Cook Airlines Scandinavia, Aigle Azur, XL Airways, Adria Airways. In view of considerable number of bankruptcies of the airlines and negative effects connected with their defaults there is a question of definition of effective measures for forecasting of probability of bankruptcy, for application preventive the world supervisory authorities and interested persons. Authors of work investigated techniques of prediction of bankruptcies of the enterprises, with emphasis on airline and comparison classical a logit of model and a Bayesian quantile regression on data from the reporting of airlines for 2009–2018 is made. In a research the possibility of application of mathematical models for forecasting in the global market of air transportation is for the first time considered, aggregating the companies on 3 integrated geographical regions. A result of work is the model considering in itself indicators of Net Income, Quick ratio, load factor, the turnover of assets and geographical accessory of the company giving prediction accuracy to 90%. This model considering a limited set of financial and operational metrics can be easily applied by supervisory authorities and other interested parties (partners) to premature identification of defaults of airlines in view of simplicity of implementation and availability of the majority of data in open access without connection to specialized databases.