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Biofuels and Food Prices: Searching for the Causal Link

Author

Listed:
  • Marzio GALEOTTI

    ()

  • Andrea BASTIANIN

    ()

  • Matteo MANERA

    ()

Abstract

analyze the relationship between the prices of ethanol, agricultural commodities and livestock in Nebraska, the U.S. second largest ethanol producer. The paper focuses on long-run relations and Granger causality linkages between ethanol and the other commodities. The analysis takes possible structural breaks into account and uses a set of techniques that allow to draw inferences about the existence of long-run relations and of short-run in-sample Granger causality and out-of sample predictive ability. Even after taking breaks into account, evidence that the price of ethanol drives the price dynamics of the other commodities is extremely weak. It is concluded that, on the basis of a formal, comprehensive and rigorous causality analysis we do not find evidence in favour of the Food versus Fuel debate.

Suggested Citation

  • Marzio GALEOTTI & Andrea BASTIANIN & Matteo MANERA, 2013. "Biofuels and Food Prices: Searching for the Causal Link," Departmental Working Papers 2013-11, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  • Handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2013-11
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    File URL: http://wp.demm.unimi.it/files/wp/2013/DEMM-2013_11wp.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Janda, Karel & Krska, Stepan & Prusa, Jan, 2014. "Odhad nákladů na podporu české fotovoltaické energie
      [The Estimation of the Cost of Promotion of the Czech Photovoltaic Energy]
      ," MPRA Paper 54108, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ethanol; Field Crops; Granger Causality; Forecasting; Structural Breaks;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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