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Forecast accuracy and economic gains from Bayesian model averaging using time varying weight

  • Lennart Hoogerheide

    (Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes, Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Richard Kleijn

    (PGGM, Zeist)

  • Francesco Ravazzolo

    ()

    (Norges Bank)

  • Herman K. van Dijk

    (Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes, Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Marno Verbeek

    (Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using ¯nancial and macroeconomic time series. The results indicate that the proposed time varying model weight schemes outperform other combination schemes in terms of predictive and economic gains. In an empirical application using returns on the S&P 500 index, time varying model weights provide improved forecasts with substantial economic gains in an investment strategy including transaction costs. Another empirical example refers to forecasting US economic growth over the business cycle. It suggests that time varying combination schemes may be very useful in business cycle analysis and forecasting, as these may provide an early indicator for recessions.

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File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2009/WP-200910/
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Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2009/10.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 23 Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2009_10
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