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Forecasts on the Imports of Goods and Services in Emerging Economies of the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Popescu Liviu

    (Professor PhD, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Craiova, Romania)

  • Găman Mirela

    (PhD student, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Craiova, Romania)

Abstract

The paper provides a statistical analysis of imports from seven emerging economies of the European Union during the period 1995-2023 and presents forecasts for the upcoming period. It was found that most of the analyzed countries recorded a significant increase in imports as a percentage of GDP, except for declines in 2009 (financial crisis) and 2020 (COVID-19 pandemic). Hungary and Slovakia experienced the highest increases, exceeding 80-100% of the GDP, while Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Croatia had a more moderate growth. The correlation analysis of imports in these countries revealed a strong association between Romania, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, indicating economic integration in the region. Croatia showed lower correlations, suggesting a different import model, more oriented toward tourism. The statistical analysis of imports highlighted significant differences between countries. In Bulgaria, imports followed a cyclical pattern, influenced by economic crises but with an overall upward trend. In the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland, imports increased significantly, with stabilization projected for the coming years. In Romania, imports continued to grow after the EU accession, and the forecast suggests moderate growth between 2024 and 2026. In Slovakia, imports showed a steady upward trend after the EU accession and the adoption of the euro, with forecasts indicating slight growth in the coming years. ARIMA models were used for import forecasting, indicating slight fluctuations but with a general trend of stability in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Popescu Liviu & Găman Mirela, 2025. "Forecasts on the Imports of Goods and Services in Emerging Economies of the European Union," Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 39-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:timjeb:v:18:y:2025:i:1:p:39-72:n:1003
    DOI: 10.2478/tjeb-2025-0003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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