Business surveys modelling with seasonal-cyclical long memory models
Business surveys are an important element in the analysis of the short-term economic situation because of the timeliness and nature of the information they convey. Especially, surveys are often involved in econometric models in order to provide an early assessment of the current state of the economy, which is of great interest for policy-makers. In this paper, we focus on non-seasonally adjusted business surveys released by the European Commission. We introduce an innovative way for modelling those series taking the persistence of the seasonal roots into account through seasonal-cyclical long memory models. We empirically prove that such models produce more accurate forecasts than classical seasonal linear models.
|Date of creation:||May 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 106-112 boulevard de l'Hôpital 75 647 PARIS CEDEX 13|
Phone: + 33 44 07 81 00
Fax: + 33 1 44 07 83 01
Web page: http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba‐Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2011.
"Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 14, pages C25-C44, 02.
- Angelini, Elena & Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Giannone, Domenico & Rünstler, Gerhard & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Short-term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Working Paper Series 0949, European Central Bank.
- Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2008-035, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Angelini, Elena & Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2008. "Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 6746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ray, Bonnie K., 1993. "Long-range forecasting of IBM product revenues using a seasonal fractionally differenced ARMA model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 255-269, August.
- Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Zhiping Lu, 2008.
"Testing fractional order of long memory processes : a Monte Carlo study,"
Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
- Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Zhiping Lu, 2008. "Testing fractional order of long memory processes : a Monte Carlo study," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b08012, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
- Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan & Zhiping Lu, 2010. "Testing Fractional Order of Long Memory Processes: A Monte Carlo Study," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00486655, HAL.
- Laurent Ferrara, 2007. "Point and interval nowcasts of the Euro area IPI," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 115-120.
- Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2001.
"Forecasting with k-factor Gegenbauer Processes: Theory and Applications,"
- Ferrara, Laurent & Guegan, Dominique, 2001. "Forecasting with k-Factor Gegenbauer Processes: Theory and Applications," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 581-601, December.
- Josu Arteche & Peter M. Robinson, 1998. "Semiparametric inference in seasonal and cyclical long memory processes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2203, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Josu Arteche & Peter M. Robinson, 1998. "Seasonal and cyclical long memory," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2241, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Dominique Guegan, 2003. "A prospective study of the k-factor Gegenbauer processes with heteroscedastic errors and an application to inflation rates," Post-Print halshs-00201314, HAL.
- repec:hal:journl:halshs-00259193 is not listed on IDEAS
- Franses, Philip Hans & Ooms, Marius, 1997. "A periodic long-memory model for quarterly UK inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 117-126, March.
- Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Fractional seasonality: Models and Application to Economic Activity in the Euro Area," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00185370, HAL.
- Wilfredo Palma & Ngai Hang Chan, 2005. "Efficient Estimation of Seasonal Long-Range-Dependent Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 863-892, November.
- Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
- Sofia C. Olhede, 2004. "Large-sample properties of the periodogram estimator of seasonally persistent processes," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 91(3), pages 613-628, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:b08035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lucie Label)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.