Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period in Brazil
This paper studies the electricity load demand behavior during the 2001 rationing period, which was implemented because of the Brazilian energetic crisis. The hourly data refers to a utility situated in the southeast of the country. We use the model proposed by Soares and Souza (2003), making use of generalized long memory to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The rationing period is shown to have imposed a structural break in the series, decreasing the load at about 20%. Even so, the forecast accuracy is decreased only marginally, and the forecasts rapidly readapt to the new situation. The forecast errors from this model also permit verifying the public response to pieces of information released regarding the crisis.
|Date of creation:||31 Jul 2003|
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- Soares, Lacir Jorge & Souza, Leonardo Rocha, 2003.
"Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
486, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
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"Forecasting with k-Factor Gegenbauer Processes: Theory and Applications,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 581-601, December.
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- repec:crs:wpaper:9927 is not listed on IDEAS
- Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
- Ray, Bonnie K., 1993. "Long-range forecasting of IBM product revenues using a seasonal fractionally differenced ARMA model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 255-269, August.
- Ramanathan, Ramu & Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive W. J. & Vahid-Araghi, Farshid & Brace, Casey, 1997. "Shorte-run forecasts of electricity loads and peaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 161-174, June.
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