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Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy

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Listed:
  • Stefano DellaVigna
  • Nicholas Otis
  • Eva Vivalt

Abstract

Forecasts of experimental results can clarify the interpretation of research results, mitigate publication bias, and improve experimental designs. We collect forecasts of the results of three Registered Reports preliminarily accepted to the Journal of Development Economics, randomly varying four features: (1) small versus large reference values; (2) whether predictions are in raw units or standard deviations; (3) text-entry versus slider responses; and (4) small versus large slider bounds. Forecasts are generally robust to elicitation features, though wider slider bounds are associated with higher forecasts throughout the forecast distribution. We make preliminary recommendations on how many forecasts should be gathered.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano DellaVigna & Nicholas Otis & Eva Vivalt, 2020. "Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy," NBER Working Papers 26716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26716
    Note: DEV LS
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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