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Manipulation-Proof Machine Learning

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  • Daniel Bjorkegren
  • Joshua E. Blumenstock
  • Samsun Knight

Abstract

An increasing number of decisions are guided by machine learning algorithms. In many settings, from consumer credit to criminal justice, those decisions are made by applying an estimator to data on an individual's observed behavior. But when consequential decisions are encoded in rules, individuals may strategically alter their behavior to achieve desired outcomes. This paper develops a new class of estimator that is stable under manipulation, even when the decision rule is fully transparent. We explicitly model the costs of manipulating different behaviors, and identify decision rules that are stable in equilibrium. Through a large field experiment in Kenya, we show that decision rules estimated with our strategy-robust method outperform those based on standard supervised learning approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Bjorkegren & Joshua E. Blumenstock & Samsun Knight, 2020. "Manipulation-Proof Machine Learning," Papers 2004.03865, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.03865
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    2. Elliott Ash & Sergio Galletta & Tommaso Giommoni, 2025. "A Machine Learning Approach to Analyze and Support Anticorruption Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 162-193, May.
    3. Aiken, Emily L. & Bedoya, Guadalupe & Blumenstock, Joshua E. & Coville, Aidan, 2023. "Program targeting with machine learning and mobile phone data: Evidence from an anti-poverty intervention in Afghanistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Roshni Sahoo & Stefan Wager, 2022. "Policy Learning with Competing Agents," Papers 2204.01884, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    5. Blumenstock, Joshua & Aiken, Emily & Bellue, Suzanne & Udry, Christopher & Karlan, Dean, 2021. "Machine Learning and Mobile Phone Data Can Improve the Targeting of Humanitarian Assistance," CEPR Discussion Papers 16385, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Meena Jagadeesan & Celestine Mendler-Dunner & Moritz Hardt, 2021. "Alternative Microfoundations for Strategic Classification," Papers 2106.12705, arXiv.org.

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