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Stability of Experimental Results: Forecasts and Evidence

Author

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  • Stefano DellaVigna
  • Devin Pope

Abstract

How robust are experimental results to changes in design? And can researchers anticipate which changes matter most? We consider a real-effort task with multiple behavioral treatments and examine the stability along six dimensions: (i) pure replication, (ii) demographics, (iii) geography and culture, (iv) the task, (v) the output measure, and (vi) the presence of a consent form. We find near-perfect replication of the experimental results and full stability of the results across demographics, significantly higher than a group of experts expected. The results differ instead across task and output change, mostly because the task change adds noise to the findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano DellaVigna & Devin Pope, 2022. "Stability of Experimental Results: Forecasts and Evidence," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 889-925, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:889-925
    DOI: 10.1257/mic.20200129
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Armantier & Charles Holt, 2024. "Can Discount Window Stigma Be Cured? An Experimental Investigation," Staff Reports 1103, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Johannes G. Jaspersen & Marc A. Ragin & Justin R. Sydnor, 2022. "Insurance demand experiments: Comparing crowdworking to the lab," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1077-1107, December.
    3. Isaiah Andrews & Drew Fudenberg & Lihua Lei & Annie Liang & Chaofeng Wu, 2022. "The Transfer Performance of Economic Models," Papers 2202.04796, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    4. Mackenzie Alston & Tatyana Deryugina & Olga Shurchkov, 2025. "Leaving Money on the Table," NBER Working Papers 33657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hansson, Karin & Popov, Alexander, 2025. "Temperatures and trust: Survey evidence on the role of climate in shaping trust in people and institutions," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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