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The Robustness Reproducibility of the American Economic Review

Author

Listed:
  • Campbell, Douglas
  • Brodeur, Abel
  • Dreber, Anna
  • Johannesson, Magnus
  • Kopecky, Joseph
  • Lusher, Lester
  • Tsoy, Nikita

Abstract

We estimate the robustness reproducibility of key results from 17 non-experimental AER papers published in 2013 (8 papers) and 2022/23 (9 papers). We find that many of the results are not robust, with no improvement over time. The fraction of significant robustness tests (p﹤0.05) varies between 17% and 88% across the papers with a mean of 46%. The mean relative t/z-value of the robustness tests varies between 35% and 87% with a mean of 63%, suggesting selective reporting of analytical specifications that exaggerate statistical significance. A sample of economists (n=359) overestimates robustness reproducibility, but predictions are correlated with observed reproducibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Campbell, Douglas & Brodeur, Abel & Dreber, Anna & Johannesson, Magnus & Kopecky, Joseph & Lusher, Lester & Tsoy, Nikita, 2024. "The Robustness Reproducibility of the American Economic Review," I4R Discussion Paper Series 124, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:124
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