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One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Zacharias Maniadis
  • Fabio Tufano
  • John A. List

Abstract

Some researchers have argued that anchoring in economic valuations casts doubt on the assumption of consistent and stable preferences. We present new evidence that explores the strength of certain anchoring results. We then present a theoretical framework that provides insights into why we should be cautious of initial empirical findings in general. The model importantly highlights that the rate of false positives depends not only on the observed significance level, but also on statistical power, research priors, and the number of scholars exploring the question. Importantly, a few independent replications dramatically increase the chances that the original finding is true.

Suggested Citation

  • Zacharias Maniadis & Fabio Tufano & John A. List, 2014. "One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 277-290, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:1:p:277-90
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.1.277
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects (AER 2014) in ReplicationWiki
    2. One Swallow Doesn’t Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects (AER 2014) in ReplicationWiki

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