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Modelling And Predicting The Real Gdp Rate In Romania

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  • MIHAELA SIMIONESCU

Abstract

The main goal of this article is to model and predict the real GDP rate in Romania using various types of econometric models (multiple regression models, trend models, unobserved component processes, models that reflect Okun law). Short-run predictions are provided on the horizon 2011-2013. On the entire period, the best forecasts were provided by a multiple regression model that explains the real GDP growth using as explanatory variables the weight of gross fixed capital formation, weight of budget expenses and double differenced weight of revenue tax. 60.51% of the variation in real GDP growth is explained by the changes in these variables. All the accuracy indicators indicated the superiority of these predictions. All the predictions, excepting those based on trend models, were better than naïve forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "Modelling And Predicting The Real Gdp Rate In Romania," Journal of Academic Research in Economics, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Accounting and Financial Management Constanta, vol. 6(3 (Novemb), pages 305-314.
    • Handle: RePEc:shc:jaresh:v:6:y:2014:i:3:p:305-314
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasts; GDP growth; multiple regression; trend model; unobserved component model; accuracy; Okun law.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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