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Blending Traditional and Alternative Labor Market Data with CHURN

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Abstract

In this article, we present a new real-time model called CHURN—short for Chicago Fed Unemployment Rate Nowcast. CHURN provides a weekly tracking estimate for the civilian unemployment rate (UR) produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). To do so, CHURN blends monthly statistics on job flows (i.e., job-finding and job-separation rates) from the BLS and other traditional labor market indicators with alternative high-frequency indicators from private sector sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott A. Brave & Ben Henken & Ezra Karger, 2025. "Blending Traditional and Alternative Labor Market Data with CHURN," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 506, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhle:101736
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    File URL: https://www.chicagofed.org/-/media/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2025/cfl506.pdf?sc_lang=en
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    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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