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¿Sigue El Tipo De Cambio Real Un Proceso De Ajuste No Lineal Hacia El Equilibrio? Evidencia Para El Tipo De Cambio Euro-Dólar

  • Paz Rico Belda

    (Universitat de València)

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    Nonlinearly mean-reverting models can explain the high short-term volatility ofthe real exchange rate and the slow speed of adjustment to the equilibrium level. Anonlinearly mean-reverting model is used in this paper to fit to euro-dollar realexchange rate. This model implies that near equilibrium the real exchange rate behavesmore like a random walk process while becomes more mean reverting the further it isfrom equilibrium. The results provide evidence of nonlinearly mean reverting in theeuro-dollar real exchange rate so the model can explain both the observed volatility andpersistence of real exchange rate. Moreover, the forecasting performance of this modelis better than the random walk benchmark. Los modelos de ajuste no lineal del tipo de cambio pueden explicar la elevada volatilidad que presentan a corto plazo los tipos de cambio reales y la reducida velocidad de ajuste a su valor de equilibrio. En este trabajo se utiliza un modelo de reversión a la media no lineal para modelizar el tipo de cambio real del euro-dólar. Este modelo implica que cuando el tipo de cambio real está próximo al equilibrio se comporta aproximadamente como un paseo aleatorio mientras que cuanto mayor es la desviación del equilibrio más rápidamente revertirá en media el tipo de cambio. Los resultados evidencian la existencia de reversión no lineal hacia el equilibrio en el tipo de cambio real euro-dólar, de tal forma que el modelo puede explicar la volatilidad y persistencia observada en el tipo de cambio real, a la vez que presenta una mejor capacidad predictiva frente al paseo aleatorio.

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    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasec/wpasec-2002-26.pdf
    File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2002
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    Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie EC with number 2002-26.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2002
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published by Ivie
    Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2002-26
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