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Forecasting economic crisis using gradient measurement of development and log-logistic function

Author

Listed:
  • Rafal Siedlecki

    (Department of Corporate Finance and Value Management, Wroclaw University of Economics, Poland)

  • Daniel Papla

    (Department of Financial Investments and Risk Management, Wroclaw University of Economics, Poland)

Abstract

This paper shows that regardless of how good the economic situation is, sooner or later certain difficulties will appear. Hence, the idea has emerged to give the analytical form to the logistic law based gradient measurement (synthetic measure) of selected financial data, which enables forecasting crises and economic downturns. The presented proposal of determining the economic cycle and the model of forecasting using the modified logistic function (log-logistic function) was tested with use of data regarding the Polish economy

Suggested Citation

  • Rafal Siedlecki & Daniel Papla, 2013. "Forecasting economic crisis using gradient measurement of development and log-logistic function," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 9(3), pages 28-40, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pdc:jrnbeh:v:9:y:2013:i:3:p:28-40
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chin-Hong Puah, & Tai-Hock Kuek, & M. Affendy Arip,, 2017. "Assessing Thailand’s financial vulnerability: An early warning approach," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(4), pages 496-505, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Law of growth; forecasting; economic crisis; time series analysis; warning signals; S-curve Journal:Business and Economic Horizons (BEH);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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