IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Interpreting the Hours-Technology time-varying relationship

  • Cristiano Cantore

    ()

  • Filippo Ferroni

    ()

  • Miguel A León-Ledesma

    ()

We investigate the time variation in the correlation between hours and technology shocks using a structural business cycle model. We propose an RBC model with a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function that allows for capital- and labor-augmenting technology shocks. We estimate the model using US data with Bayesian techniques. In the full sample, we find (i) evidence in favor of a less than unitary elasticity of substitution (rejecting Cobb-Douglas) and (ii) a sizable role for capital augmenting shock for business cycles fluctuations. In rolling sub-samples, we document that the impact of technology shocks on hours worked varies over time and switches from negative to positive towards the end of the sample. We argue that this change is due to the increase in the elasticity of factor substitution. That is, labor and capital became less complementary throughout the sample inducing a change in the sign and size of the the response of hours. We conjecture that this change may have been induced by a change in the skill composition of the labor input.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/1201.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 1201.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1201
Contact details of provider: Postal:
School of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP

Phone: +44 (0)1227 827497
Web page: http://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. John F. Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2007. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  3. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2003. "Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?," Economics Working Papers 918, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
  4. John Geweke, 1999. "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 832, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J. & McGrattan, Ellen R., 2008. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1337-1352, November.
  6. Chris Papageorgiou & Marianne Saam, . "Two-Level CES Production Technology in the Solow and Diamond Growth Models," Departmental Working Papers 2005-07, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
  7. Jordi Gali & J. David Lopez-Salido & Javier Valles, 2002. "Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy: Assessing the Fed's Performance," NBER Working Papers 8768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Cristiano Cantore & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2013. "Shocking Stuff: Technology, Hours, and Factor Substitution," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0913, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  9. Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco & Long, Ngo & Poschke, Markus, 0. "Capital-labor substitution, structural change and growth," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
  10. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-57, September.
  11. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213.
  12. Chirinko, Robert S., 2008. "[sigma]: The long and short of it," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 671-686, June.
  13. Jordi Galí & Thijs van Rens, 2014. "The Vanishing Procyclicality of Labor Productivity," Working Papers 489, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  14. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Kryshko, Maxym & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül & Schorfheide, Frank, 2009. "Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours," CEPR Discussion Papers 7474, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
  16. Kahn, James A. & Rich, Robert W., 2007. "Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1670-1701, September.
  17. Daron Acemoglu, 2001. "Directed Technical Change," NBER Working Papers 8287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Xavier Gabaix & Vasco M. Carvalho, 2010. "The Great Diversification and its Undoing," 2010 Meeting Papers 880, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. Thijs van Rens & Almut Balleer, 2007. "Cyclical Skill-Biased Technological Change," 2007 Meeting Papers 62, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  20. Fernald, John G., 2007. "Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and contractionary technology improvements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2467-2485, November.
  21. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 1997. "Capital-skill complementarity and inequality: a macroeconomic analysis," Staff Report 239, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  23. Chris Papageorgiou & Kaz Miyagiwa, . "Endogenous Aggregate Elasticity of Substitution," Departmental Working Papers 2006-06, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
  24. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2005. "Measures of Per Capita Hours and their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate," NBER Working Papers 11694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2008. "Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 300-323, May.
  26. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier.
  27. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
  28. Canova, Fabio & López-Salido, J David & Michelacci, Claudio, 2008. "The Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours and Output: A Robustness Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6720, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, . "The Dynamics of US Inflation: Can Monetary Policy Explain the Changes?," Working Papers 471, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  30. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 7-72, March.
  31. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  32. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Volatility accounting: a production perspective on increased economic stability," Staff Reports 245, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  33. Roberts John M., 2001. "Estimates of the Productivity Trend Using Time-Varying Parameter Techniques," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-32, July.
  34. Chang, Yongsung & Doh, Taeyoung & Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "Non-stationary Hours in a DSGE Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5232, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
  36. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  37. Whelan, Karl T., 2009. "Technology shocks and hours worked: Checking for robust conclusions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 231-239, June.
  38. Lutz Hendricks, 2010. "Cross-country variation in educational attainment: structural change or within-industry skill upgrading?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 205-233, September.
  39. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1974. "The Elasticity of Substitution and Cyclical Behavior of Productivity, Wages, and Labor's Share," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(2), pages 257-63, May.
  40. Alessio Moro, 2012. "The Structural Transformation Between Manufacturing and Services and the Decline in the US GDP Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 402-415, July.
  41. Acemoglu, Daron & Aghion, Philippe & Violante, Giovanni L., 2001. "Deunionization, technical change and inequality," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 229-264, December.
  42. Robert S. Chirinko, 2008. "ó: The Long And Short Of It," CESifo Working Paper Series 2234, CESifo Group Munich.
  43. Jordi Galí & Pau Rabanal, 2005. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the Real Business Cycle Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 225-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Francesco Nucci & Marianna Riggi, 2009. "The Great Moderation and Changes in the Structure of Labor Compensation," Working Papers 124, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tracey Girling)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.