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The Accuracy of CBO's Baseline Estimates for Fiscal Year 2018

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  • Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

After every fiscal year, CBO undertakes a detailed review of the accuracy of its baseline projections. CBO’s June 2017 projections for federal outlays and revenues for fiscal year 2018 exceeded actual amounts, by 1.7 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively (after an adjustment to account for legislation that was enacted after those projections were prepared). Those differences are smaller than the mean absolute errors of 2.3 percent for outlay projections made for 1993 to 2017 and 5.0 percent for revenue projections made for 1983 to 2017.

Suggested Citation

  • Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "The Accuracy of CBO's Baseline Estimates for Fiscal Year 2018," Reports 54872, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:report:54872
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2018-12/54872-Analysis_of_Actuals.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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