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Upgrading the Czech National Bank's Core Forecasting Model g3+

Author

Listed:
  • Frantisek Brazdik
  • Karel Musil
  • Tomas Pokorny
  • Tomas Sestorad
  • Jaromir Tonner
  • Jan Zacek

Abstract

We present the upgraded version of g3+, the Czech National Bank's core forecasting model, which became operational in April 2024 and summarizes its additional modifications over 2024. This paper outlines the innovative features of the model and the motivations behind their adoption. The enhancements also reflect the period from 2020 to 2022, which was marked by extraordinary events such as the Covid-19 pandemic and a significant surge in energy commodity prices. The upgraded g3+ now includes, among others, the endogenous decomposition of foreign economic activity into gap and trend components, a refined structure of foreign producer prices, and adjusted links between foreign and domestic economies. In addition, several model parameters have been recalibrated to reflect current and anticipated economic conditions. The introduction of these model changes and parameter adjustments lead to improved forecasting performance relative to the previous version of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Frantisek Brazdik & Karel Musil & Tomas Pokorny & Tomas Sestorad & Jaromir Tonner & Jan Zacek, 2025. "Upgrading the Czech National Bank's Core Forecasting Model g3+," Working Papers 2025/7, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2025/7
    as

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    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2025_07.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enghin Atalay, 2017. "How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 254-280, October.
    2. Leo Krippner, 2020. "A Note of Caution on Shadow Rate Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 951-962, June.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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