Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts
We introduce a statistical test for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts, based on the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC). The test is valid under general conditions: in particular it allows for parameter estimation uncertainty and for the copulas to be nested or non-nested. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the proposed test has satisfactory size and power properties in finite samples. Applying the test to daily exchange rate returns of several major currencies against the US dollar we find that the Student's t copula is favored over Gaussian, Gumbel and Clayton copulas. This suggests that these exchange rate returns are characterized by symmetric tail dependence.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands|
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
- Christian Genest & Jean-François Quessy & Bruno Rémillard, 2006. "Goodness-of-fit Procedures for Copula Models Based on the Probability Integral Transformation," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 33(2), pages 337-366.
- Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan & Victor Tsyrennifov, 2004.
"Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Multivariate Copula Models,"
Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers
0420, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
- Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2006. "Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Multivariate Copula Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1228-1240, September.
- Christian Genest & Michel Gendron & Micha�l Bourdeau-Brien, 2009. "The Advent of Copulas in Finance," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7-8), pages 609-618.
- Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2001.
"Testing the Gaussian Copula Hypothesis for Financial Assets Dependences,"
- Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2003. "Testing the Gaussian copula hypothesis for financial assets dependences," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 231-250.
- Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2001. "Testing the Gaussian Copula Hypothesis for Financial Assets Dependences," Papers cond-mat/0111310, arXiv.org.
- Yannick Malevergne & Didier Sornette, 2003. "Testing the Gaussian copula hypothesis for financial assets dependences," Post-Print hal-00520539, HAL.
- Andrew J. Patton, 2008.
"Copula-Based Models for Financial Time Series,"
OFRC Working Papers Series
2008fe21, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Panchenko, Valentyn, 2005.
"Goodness-of-fit test for copulas,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 176-182.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006.
"Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability,"
Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & White, Halbert, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5jk0j5jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, EconWPA.
- Andrew J. Patton, 2006.
"Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, 05.
- Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
- Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2008. "New Evidence of Asymmetric Dependence Structures in International Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(03), pages 787-815, September.
- Shen, Xiaojing & Zhu, Yunmin & Song, Lixin, 2008. "Linear B-spline copulas with applications to nonparametric estimation of copulas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 3806-3819, March.
- Douglas Rivers & Quang Vuong, 2002. "Model selection tests for nonlinear dynamic models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, June.
- Koedijk, Kees & Kole, Erik & Verbeek, Marno, 2006.
"Selecting Copulas for Risk Management,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5652, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.
- Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation and model selection of semiparametric copula-based multivariate dynamic models under copula misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 125-154.
- Gianni Amisano & Raffaella Giacomini, 2005.
"Comparing Density Forecsts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests,"
ubs0504, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
- Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
- Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
- Isabelle Huault & V. Perret & S. Charreire-Petit, 2007. "Management," Post-Print halshs-00337676, HAL.
- Dimitrova, Dimitrina S. & Kaishev, Vladimir K. & Penev, Spiridon I., 2008. "GeD spline estimation of multivariate Archimedean copulas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 3570-3582, March.
- Fermanian, Jean-David, 2005. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 119-152, July.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Yong Bao & Burak Saltoğlu, 2007. "Comparing density forecast models Previous versions of this paper have been circulated with the title, 'A Test for Density Forecast Comparison with Applications to Risk Management' since October 2003;," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 203-225.
- Dr. James Mitchell, 2005. "Evaluating, comparing and combining density forecasts using the KLIC with an application to the Bank of England and NIESR ÔfanÕ charts of inflation," NIESR Discussion Papers 253, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Sancetta, Alessio & Satchell, Stephen, 2004. "The Bernstein Copula And Its Applications To Modeling And Approximations Of Multivariate Distributions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 535-562, June.
- James Mitchell & Stephen G. Hall, 2005. "Evaluating, Comparing and Combining Density Forecasts Using the KLIC with an Application to the Bank of England and NIESR 'Fan' Charts of Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 995-1033, December.
- Jean-David FERMANIAN & Olivier SCAILLET, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of Copulas for Time Series," FAME Research Paper Series rp57, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
- Joshua D. Coval & Jakub W. Jurek & Erik Stafford, 2009. "Economic Catastrophe Bonds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 628-66, June.
- W. Breymann & A. Dias & P. Embrechts, 2003. "Dependence structures for multivariate high-frequency data in finance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-14.
- Daniel Berg, 2009. "Copula goodness-of-fit testing: an overview and power comparison," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7-8), pages 675-701.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:08-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cees C.G. Diks)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.