Forecasts with single-equation Markov-switching model: an application to the gross domestic product of Latvia
The paper compares one-period ahead forecasting performance of linear vector-autoregressive (VAR) models and single-equation Markov-switching (MS) models for two cases: when leading information is available and when it is not. The results show that single-equation MS models tend to perform slightly better than linear VAR models when no leading information is available. However, if reliable leading information is available, single-equation MS models tend to give somewhat less precise forecasts than linear VAR models.
|Date of creation:||14 Feb 2010|
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- Benoit Bellone, 2005. "Classical Estimation of Multivariate Markov-Switching Models using MSVARlib," Econometrics 0508017, EconWPA.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Predicting Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W31, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002.
"The European Business Cycle,"
Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces
E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
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