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Forecasts With Single - Equation Markov - Switching Model: An Application To The Gross Domestic Product Of Latvia

  • Ginters BUSS

The paper compares one-period ahead forecasting performance of linear vector-autoregressive (VAR) models and single-equation Markov-switching (MS) models for two cases: when leading information is available and when it is not. The results show that single-equation MS models tend to perform slightly better than linear VAR models when no leading information is available. However, if reliable leading information is available, single-equation MS models tend to give somewhat less precise forecasts than linear VAR models.

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File URL: http://www.jaes.reprograph.ro/articles/summer2010/BussG.pdf
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Article provided by Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova in its journal Journal of Applied Economic Sciences.

Volume (Year): 5 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2(12)/Summer2010 ()
Pages: 48-58

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Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:5:y:2010:i:2(12)_spring2010:p:100
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www2.spiruharet.ro/facultati/facultate.php?id=14
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  1. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  2. Artis, M. & Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 1999. "The European Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers eco99/24, European University Institute.
  3. Benoit Bellone, 2005. "Classical Estimation of Multivariate Markov-Switching Models using MSVARlib," Econometrics 0508017, EconWPA.
  4. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Predicting Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W31, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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