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Paul Krugman Denies Having Concurred With an Administration Forecast: A Note

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  • David O. Cushman

Abstract

In a previous article for Econ Journal Watch, I attributed to Paul Krugman a concurrence with the optimistic economic forecast put forward in early 2009 by the incoming Administration. Krugman reacted by denying that he had concurred with that forecast, pointing to a blog entry of his from January 2009. But Krugman apparently did not read my paper. It concerned not a blog entry from January 2009 but rather one from March 2009. In this note, I take greater pains to show how Krugman’s March entry, made in support of Brad DeLong’s criticism of Greg Mankiw’s doubts about the Administration forecast, can be interpreted as having effectively concurred with that forecast. I conclude with discussion of the shortcomings of the model that DeLong put forward when making his Krugman-endorsed criticism of Mankiw’s doubts.

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  • David O. Cushman, 2013. "Paul Krugman Denies Having Concurred With an Administration Forecast: A Note," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 10(1), pages 108-115, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ejw:journl:v:10:y:2013:i:1:p:108-115
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Paul Krugman; Brad DeLong; Greg Mankiw; Council of Economic Advisers; real GDP; forecasts; VAR; Okun’s Law;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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