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Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Philip Liu
  • Rafael Romeu
  • Mr. Troy D Matheson

Abstract

Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates "nowcasts" and forecasts of real GDP growth using five alternative models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate that the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Philip Liu & Rafael Romeu & Mr. Troy D Matheson, 2011. "Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/098, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/098
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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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