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How the post-COVID-19 US economy lost and then regained momentum against the Eurozone economy

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  • Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to assess and compare the resilience of the post-Covid US and Eurozone economies. Quarterly growth rates (annualized) of the Real GDP of US and the Eurozone are forecasted between Q4 2023 and Q4 2050. Two sets of forecasts are generated: forecasts using historical data including the pandemic (from Q4 1997 to Q3 2023) and not including the pandemic (from Q4 1997 to Q3 2019). The computation of the difference of their averages is an indicator of the resilience of the economies during the pandemic, the greater the difference the greater the resilience. Used as a benchmark, Eurozone (19 countries) shows a greater resilience to the Covid-19 pandemic (+0.27%) than the US (+0.17%) based on Q4 2023-Q4 2050 forecasts. However, the average of Q4 2023 - Q4 2050 quarterly (annualized) growth rate forecasts of the Eurozone is expected to be +0.87% with the Q4 1997 – Q3 2023 historical data whereas it is expected to be +1.49% for US. The US economy shows better prospects and greater momentum than the Eurozone economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan, 2025. "How the post-COVID-19 US economy lost and then regained momentum against the Eurozone economy," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 22(1), pages 129-174, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:liu:liucej:v:22:y:2025:i:1:p:129-174
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; wavelet analysis; forecasting; US economy; Eurozone economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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