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El Metodo Delphi

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  • Ignacio Vélez-Pareja

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Abstract

Esta es una nota de estudio donde se presenta un método para lograr consenso en grupos conocido como el método Delphi o Délfico. Este método es útil para cerrar la brecha entre una situación de desconocimiento total de un hecho y una apreciación calificada del mismo. Se presenta el origen del nombre, asociado al oráculo de Delphos en Grecia y se define y se describen el origen y la forma de operar. Se anotan sus ventajas, elementos básicos y las críticas y objeciones más comunes. Así mismo, se relacionan los usos más conocidos del método. La última parte, concluye. No pretende ser una nota novedosa, sino es una actualización bibliográfica sobre el tema. In this teaching note I explain a method to obtain consensus among the members of a group. This method is the well known Delphi Method. This method is useful to close the gap between the total ignorance regarding a fact or situation and a disciplined guess. I present the origin of the name, that is associated to the Delphos Oracle in Greece and I define the origin and operational procedure as well. I mention the advantages, the basic elements and the most common critiques and objections found in the literature. Finally, I present the most common uses of the method. In the last section I conclude. This note is not intended to present something really new. It is just an actualized bibliographic review.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Vélez-Pareja, 2003. "El Metodo Delphi," PROYECCIONES FINANCIERAS Y VALORACION 002524, MASTER CONSULTORES.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000463:002524
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    File URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=420040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ignacio Vélez Pareja, 1999. "Project Evaluation in an Inflationary Environment," PROYECCIONES FINANCIERAS Y VALORACION 003391, MASTER CONSULTORES.
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    Keywords

    Uncertainty; consensus; group decisions; decisions under uncertainty; Delphi method; group of experts; impact matrices; committee work;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making

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