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Exchange Rate Predictability and State-of-the-Art Models

Listed author(s):
  • Pinar Yesin

This paper empirically evaluates the predictive performance of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) exchange rate assessments with respect to future exchange rate movements. The assessments of real trade-weighted exchange rates were conducted from 2006 to 2011, and were based on three state-of-the-art exchange rate models with a medium-term focus which were developed by the IMF. The empirical analysis using 26 advanced and emerging market economy currencies reveals that the 'diagnosis' of undervalued or overvalued currencies based on these models has significant predictive power with respect to future exchange rate movements, with one model outperforming the other two. The models are better at predicting future exchange rate movements in advanced and open economies. Controlling for the exchange rate regime does not increase the predictive power of the assessments. Furthermore, the directional accuracy of the IMF assessments is found to be higher than market expectations.

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File URL: https://www.snb.ch/n/mmr/reference/working_paper_2016_02/source/working_paper_2016_02.n.pdf
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Paper provided by Swiss National Bank in its series Working Papers with number 2016-02.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 2016
Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2016-02
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  1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
  2. Elisabeth Beusch & Barbara Döbeli & Andreas M. Fischer & Pinar Yesin, 2013. "Merchanting and current account balances," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 140, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. De Bock, Reinout & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2015. "The behavior of currencies during risk-off episodes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 218-234.
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  5. Grisse, Christian & Nitschka, Thomas, 2015. "On financial risk and the safe haven characteristics of Swiss franc exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 153-164.
  6. G. Russell Kincaid & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  8. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
  9. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca A Ricci & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments; CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Jungjin Lee & Abdul d Abiad & Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Evaluating Historical CGER Assessments; How Well Have They Predicted Subsequent Exchange Rate Movements?," IMF Working Papers 09/32, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "Understanding order flow," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 3-23.
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  13. Habib, Maurizio M. & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 50-64.
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