A Time-varying Mixing Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility
In this paper we model the dynamics of realized volatility as a Multiplicative Error Model with a mixture of distributions for the innovation term with time-varying mixing weights forced by past behavior of volatility. The mixture considers innovations as a source of time-varying volatility of volatility and is able to capture the right tail behavior of the distribution of volatility. The empirical results show that there is no substantial difference in the one-step ahead conditional expectations obtained according to various mixing schemes but that fixity of mixing weights may be a binding constraint in deriving accurate quantiles of the predicted distribution.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2010|
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- Giovanni Luca & Giampiero Gallo, 2009.
"Time-Varying Mixing Weights in Mixture Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1-3), pages 102-120.
- Giovanni De Luca & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2005. "Time-varying Mixing Weights in Mixture Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2005_11, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Giovanni De Luca & Giampiero Gallo, 2006. "Time-varying Mixing Weights in Mixture Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2006_12, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Markku Lanne, 2006. "A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 594-616.
- Markku Lanne, 2006. "A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/3, European University Institute.
- Robert Engle, 2002. "New frontiers for arch models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 425-446.
- Engle, Robert F. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006. "A multiple indicators model for volatility using intra-daily data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 3-27.
- Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2003. "A Multiple Indicators Model For Volatility Using Intra-Daily Data," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2003_07, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2003. "A Multiple Indicators Model for Volatility Using Intra-Daily Data," NBER Working Papers 10117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars Forsberg & Eric Ghysels, 2007. "Why Do Absolute Returns Predict Volatility So Well?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(1), pages 31-67.
- Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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