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Entendiendo, Modelando y Pronosticando los efectos de "El Niño" sobre los precios de los alimentos: el caso colombiano

Author

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  • Bejarano-Salcedo, Valeria
  • Cárdenas-Cárdenas, Julián Alonso
  • Julio-Román, Juan Manuel
  • Caicedo-García, Edgar

Abstract

Proponemos nuevos modelos para el efecto de “El Niño Southern Oscillation”, ENSO, sobre los precios de los alimentos en Colombia. Estudiamos el efecto del “Oceanic Niño Index”, ONI, la medida de ENSO preferida, y de las precipitaciones locales sobre los precios de los alimentos perecederos. Estos modelos surgen de hechos estilizados conocidos, los cuales resumimos en este escrito, y admiten representaciones tiempo-variantes espacio-estado, de las que derivamos las reglas óptimas de pronóstico. Encontramos que una función de transferencia simple, condicional a la intensidad de ENSO, es suficiente para explicar estas relaciones. En adición al bien conocido hecho que la Niña tiene un efecto distinto al del Niño sobre los precios de los alimentos, también hallamos que el efecto de ENSO cambia con su intensidad. Reconocer que el ONI es un indicador imperfecto de las condiciones climáticas locales mejora el ajuste de nuestro modelo, lo cual se refleja en sus pronósticos. El modelo para la precipitación, sin embargo, no necesita de este recurso. También surgen ganancias en eficiencia debido al modelamiento de la heterocedasticidad. Finalmente, estos modelos pueden servir para entender el efecto de ENSO en otras variables como el PIB.

Suggested Citation

  • Bejarano-Salcedo, Valeria & Cárdenas-Cárdenas, Julián Alonso & Julio-Román, Juan Manuel & Caicedo-García, Edgar, 2020. "Entendiendo, Modelando y Pronosticando los efectos de "El Niño" sobre los precios de los alimentos: el caso colombiano," Working papers 50, Red Investigadores de Economía.
  • Handle: RePEc:rie:riecdt:50
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflación de alimentos; El Niño; Pronóstico de inflación; Política Monetaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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