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Forecasting the impacts of climate variability: lessons from the rainfed corn market in Ceará, Brazil




A number of studies show that climatic shocks have significant economic impacts in several regions of the world, especially in, but not limited to, developing economies. In this paper we focus on a drought-related indicator of well-being and emergency spending in the Brazilian semi-arid zone – rainfed corn market – and estimate aggregate behavioral and forecast models for this market conditional on local climate determinants. We find encouraging evidence that our approach can help policy makers buy time to help them prepare for drought mitigating actions. The analysis is applicable to economies elsewhere in the world and climatic impacts other than those caused by droughts.

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  • Chimeli, Ariaster B. & De Souza Filho, Francisco De Assis & Holanda, Marcos Costa & Petterini, Francis Carlo, 2008. "Forecasting the impacts of climate variability: lessons from the rainfed corn market in Ceará, Brazil," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 201-227, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:13:y:2008:i:02:p:201-227_00

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    1. Daniel Parra-Amado & Davinson Stev Abril-Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia, 2016. "Impactos de los fenómenos climáticos sobre el precio de los alimentos en Colombia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 34(80), pages 146-158, June.

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