On the relationship between GHGs and Global Temperature Anomalies: Multi-level rolling analysis and Copula calibration
The relationship between GHG emissions and global warming is studied through multi-level rolling analysis to assess whether or not there are increasing rates in global change as a result of higher levels of anthropogenic emissions, as we move forward in time. Furthermore, in order to assess whether we observe tail-dependence, representing simultaneous occurrence of extreme events, we employ copula methods. Our main findings do not support views of increasing rates in global climate change as a result of higher levels of emissions. On the contrary, they suggest a constant or even a decreasing effect of emissions on temperature anomalies especially from 2005 onward. At the same time, our copula calibration shows that the Frank copula achieves the best fit. Since the Frank copula is a copula that assigns a low probability to joint extreme events, our analysis does not show tail dependence.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2017|
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- Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Rupert Read & Raphael Douady & Joseph Norman & Yaneer Bar-Yam, 2014. "The Precautionary Principle (with Application to the Genetic Modification of Organisms)," Papers 1410.5787, arXiv.org.
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