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The value of feedback in forecasting competitions

Author

Listed:
  • Athanasopoulos, George
  • Hyndman, Rob J.

Abstract

In this paper we challenge the traditional design used for forecasting competitions. We implement an online competition with a public leaderboard that provides instant feedback to competitors who are allowed to revise and resubmit forecasts. The results show that feedback significantly improves forecasting accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J., 2011. "The value of feedback in forecasting competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 845-849.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:3:p:845-849
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.03.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
    2. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    3. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J., 2011. "The value of feedback in forecasting competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 845-849.
    4. Assimakopoulos, V. & Nikolopoulos, K., 2000. "The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 521-530.
    5. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011. "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Garcia Martinez, Marian, 2015. "Solver engagement in knowledge sharing in crowdsourcing communities: Exploring the link to creativity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1419-1430.
    2. Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2014. "Do Experts’ SKU Forecasts Improve after Feedback?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 69-79, January.
    3. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J., 2011. "The value of feedback in forecasting competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 845-849.
    4. Emrouznejad, Ali & Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Petridis, Konstantinos, 2016. "A novel ranking procedure for forecasting approaches using Data Envelopment Analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 235-243.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kaggle; Online competition; Revising forecasts; Public leaderboard; Tourism;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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