The value of feedback in forecasting competitions
In this paper we challenge the traditional design used for forecasting competitions. We implement an online competition with a public leaderboard that provides instant feedback to competitors who are allowed to revise and resubmit forecasts. The results show that feedback significantly improves forecasting accuracy.
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- Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011.
"The tourism forecasting competition,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844, July.
- George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Haiyan Song & Doris C Wu, 2008. "The tourism forecasting competition," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/08, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised Oct 2009.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J., 2011.
"The value of feedback in forecasting competitions,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 845-849.
- George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman, 2011. "The value of feedback in forecasting competitions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008.
"Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R,"
Journal of Statistical Software,
Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03), pages -.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, 2007. "Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Assimakopoulos, V. & Nikolopoulos, K., 2000. "The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 521-530.
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