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Results of a special questionnaire for participants in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)

Author

Listed:
  • Meyler, Aidan
  • Rubene, Ieva

Abstract

This document provides a summary of the aggregate results of a special questionnaire which was sent to the participants in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) in autumn 2008, in the context of the ten-year anniversary of the SPF’s launch in January 1999. In summary, the results show that the SPF responses are quite timely and that the forecasts are based on heterogeneous assumptions that are predominantly generated in house. In addition, although both structural and time series models are widely used, judgement also plays a key role, in particular for the reported probability distributions. It is thus very important to consider the heterogeneity of the SPF forecasts when analysing and interpreting the results of the SPF.

Suggested Citation

  • Meyler, Aidan & Rubene, Ieva, 2009. "Results of a special questionnaire for participants in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)," MPRA Paper 20751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20751
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20751/1/MPRA_paper_20751.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Magdalena Grothe & Aidan Meyler, 2018. "Inflation Forecasts: Are Market-Based and Survey-Based Measures Informative?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(1), pages 171-188, January.
    2. Maxime Phillot & Dr. Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2018. "Inflation Expectations: The Effect of Question Ordering on Forecast Inconsistencies," Working Papers 2018-11, Swiss National Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    SPF; Survey; Forecasts; Expectations; Formation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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