Decision-Based Forecast Evaluation of UK Interest Rate Predictability
This paper illustrates the importance of density forecasting in portfolio decision making involving bonds of different maturities. The forecast performance of an atheoretic and a theory informed model of bond returns is evaluated. The decision making environment is fully described for an investor seeking to optimally allocate his portfolio between long and short Treasury Bills, over investment horizons of up to two years. Using weekly data over 1997 to 2007 we examine the impact of parameter uncertainty and predictability in returns on the investor's allocation. We describe how the forecasts are computed and used in this context. Both statistical and decision-based criteria are used to assess the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the models. Our results show sensitivity to the evaluation criterion used. In the context of investment decision making under an economic value criterion, we find some potential gain for the investor from assuming predictability.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2010|
|Date of revision:|
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- Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L, 2007.
"The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value,"
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2512, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Mar 2007.
- Michiel D. de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2007. "Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty, Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Information," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-028/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L. & Valente, Giorgio, 2007.
"The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(01), pages 81-100, March.
- Giorgio Valente & Daniel Thornton & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," Working Papers wp05-13, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," CEPR Discussion Papers 5259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2005. "The empirical failure of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of bond yields," Working Papers 2003-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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