IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/usg/sfwpfi/201619.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Explaining the Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis with Short-Term Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Ranaldo, Angelo

    ()

  • Rupprecht, Matthias

    ()

Abstract

This paper provides the first systematic study of the temporal and cross-sectional variation in the risk premium of the expectations hypothesis (EH) at very short end of the term structure. Using a unique and comprehensive dataset of European repurchase (repo) rates, we explain the sources and time variation affecting the risk premium. Our results show that the EH cannot be rejected when loans are secured by safe collateral and that unconventional monetary policy can substantially reduce risk premiums. By contrast, the EH is violated when interest rates are affected by funding risk and collateral risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Ranaldo, Angelo & Rupprecht, Matthias, 2016. "Explaining the Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis with Short-Term Rates," Working Papers on Finance 1619, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Jan 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2016:19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/sfwpfi/WPF-1619.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Stefan Nagel & Dmitry Orlov, 2014. "Sizing Up Repo," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2381-2417, December.
    2. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 158-174, July.
    3. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2009. "A black swan in the money market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    4. Bengt Holmstrom, 2015. "Understanding the role of debt in the financial system," BIS Working Papers 479, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    6. Garcia-de-Andoain, Carlos & Heider, Florian & Hoerova, Marie & Manganelli, Simone, 2016. "Lending-of-last-resort is as lending-of-last-resort does: Central bank liquidity provision and interbank market functioning in the euro area," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 32-47.
    7. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
    8. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
    9. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. " New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June.
    10. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
    12. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L. & Valente, Giorgio, 2007. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(01), pages 81-100, March.
    13. Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, August.
    14. Acharya, Viral & Bisin, Alberto, 2014. "Counterparty risk externality: Centralized versus over-the-counter markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 153-182.
    15. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    16. Angelo Baglioni & Andrea Monticini, 2008. "The Intraday Price of Money: Evidence from the e-MID Interbank Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1533-1540, October.
    17. Adam Copeland & Antoine Martin & Michael Walker, 2014. "Repo Runs: Evidence from the Tri-Party Repo Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2343-2380, December.
    18. Jordan, Bradford D & Jordan, Susan D, 1997. " Special Repo Rates: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2051-2072, December.
    19. Antoine Martin & David Skeie & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2014. "Repo Runs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 957-989.
    20. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    21. Duffie, Darrell, 1996. " Special Repo Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 493-526, June.
    22. repec:eee:jfinin:v:23:y:2014:i:2:p:232-254 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Loriano Mancini & Angelo Ranaldo & Jan Wrampelmeyer, 2016. "The Euro Interbank Repo Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(7), pages 1747-1779.
    24. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2002. "Do Bonds Span the Fixed Income Markets? Theory and Evidence for Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1685-1730, August.
    25. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    26. Beaupain, Renaud & Durré, Alain, 2013. "Central bank reserves and interbank market liquidity in the euro area," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 259-284.
    27. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    28. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
    30. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-692, September.
    31. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1988. "The information in forward rates : Implications for models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 41-70, May.
    32. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 2001. "Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 241-270, October.
    33. Buraschi, Andrea & Menini, Davide, 2002. "Liquidity risk and specialness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 243-284, May.
    34. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
    35. Melino, Angelo, 2001. "Estimation of a rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 639-668, December.
    36. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    37. Schotman, Peter C., 1997. "Small sample properties of the regression test of the expectations model of the term structure1," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 129-134, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations hypothesis; interest rates; risk premium; monetary policy; repo;

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2016:19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Geraldine Frei). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cfisgch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.