IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v141y2021i2p750-770.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regulatory effects on short-term interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Ranaldo, Angelo
  • Schaffner, Patrick
  • Vasios, Michalis

Abstract

We analyze the effects of prudential regulation on short-term interest rates. The European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) induces clearing houses (CCPs) to supply large amounts of cash in reverse repurchase agreements (repos). Basel III, in contrast, disincentivizes the borrowing demand by tightening banks’ balance sheet constraints. Using unique regulatory data of CCP investment activity and repo transactions, we find compelling evidence for both the supply and demand channels. The overall effects are decreasing short-term rates and increasing market imbalances in various forms, all of which entail unintended consequences due to the new regulatory framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Ranaldo, Angelo & Schaffner, Patrick & Vasios, Michalis, 2021. "Regulatory effects on short-term interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 750-770.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:141:y:2021:i:2:p:750-770
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.04.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X21001434
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.04.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 158-174, July.
    2. Boissel, Charles & Derrien, François & Ors, Evren & Thesmar, David, 2017. "Systemic risk in clearing houses: Evidence from the European repo market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 511-536.
    3. Musto, David K, 1997. "Portfolio Disclosures and Year-End Price Shifts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1563-1588, September.
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2017. "Repo market functioning," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 59, december.
    5. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    6. Loon, Yee Cheng & Zhong, Zhaodong Ken, 2014. "The impact of central clearing on counterparty risk, liquidity, and trading: Evidence from the credit default swap market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 91-115.
    7. Duffie, Darrell & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2015. "Central clearing and collateral demand," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 237-256.
    8. Rama Cont, 2015. "The end of the waterfall: default resources of central counterparties," Working Paper 2015/16, Norges Bank.
    9. Darrell Duffie, 2018. "Financial Regulatory Reform After the Crisis: An Assessment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(10), pages 4835-4857, October.
    10. Park, Sang Yong & Reinganum, Marc R., 1986. "The puzzling price behavior of treasury bills that mature at the turn of calendar months," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 267-283, June.
    11. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2013. "Intermediary Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 732-770, April.
    12. Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide & Uno, Jun, 2018. "Central bank-driven mispricing," SAFE Working Paper Series 226, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2018.
    13. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
    14. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Tyler Muir, 2014. "Financial Intermediaries and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2557-2596, December.
    15. Van Horen, Neeltje & Kotidis, Antonis, 2018. "Repo market functioning: the role of capital regulation," Bank of England working papers 746, Bank of England.
    16. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    17. Stefan Nagel, 2016. "The Liquidity Premium of Near-Money Assets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1927-1971.
    18. Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Shachar, Or, 2017. "Dealer balance sheets and bond liquidity provision," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 92-109.
    19. Gary Gorton, 2017. "The History and Economics of Safe Assets," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 547-586, September.
    20. Ogden, Joseph P., 1987. "The End of the Month as a Preferred Habitat: A Test of Operational Efficiency in the Money Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 329-343, September.
    21. Wenxin Du & Salil Gadgil & Michael B. Gordy & Clara Vega, 2016. "Counterparty Risk and Counterparty Choice in the Credit Default Swap Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-087, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Wenxin Du & Alexander Tepper & Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 915-957, June.
    23. Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Special Repo Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 493-526, June.
    24. Loriano Mancini & Angelo Ranaldo & Jan Wrampelmeyer, 2016. "The Euro Interbank Repo Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(7), pages 1747-1779.
    25. Bech, Morten L. & Klee, Elizabeth, 2011. "The mechanics of a graceful exit: Interest on reserves and segmentation in the federal funds market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 415-431.
    26. Benedikt Ballensiefen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2023. "Safe Asset Carry Trade," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 223-265.
    27. Longstaff, Francis A, 1990. "Time Varying Term Premia and Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1307-1314, September.
    28. Annalisa Bucalossi & Antonio Scalia, 2016. "Leverage ratio, central bank operations and repo market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 347, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    29. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Stefan Nagel & Dmitry Orlov, 2014. "Sizing Up Repo," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2381-2417, December.
    30. Corradin, Stefano & Maddaloni, Angela, 2020. "The importance of being special: Repo markets during the crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 392-429.
    31. Duffie, Darrell, 2016. "Financial Regulatory Reform after the Crisis: An Assessment," Research Papers 3440, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    32. Shabana Khan & Jyoti L. Mishra & Kuna-hui Elaine Lin & Emma E. H. Doyle, 2017. "Rethinking communication in risk interpretation and action," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1709-1726, September.
    33. Arora, Navneet & Gandhi, Priyank & Longstaff, Francis A., 2012. "Counterparty credit risk and the credit default swap market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 280-293.
    34. Benjamin Munyan, 2015. "Regulatory Arbitrage in the Repo Market," Working Papers 15-22, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    35. Leonardo Bartolini & Spence Hilton & Suresh Sundaresan & Christopher Tonetti, 2011. "Collateral Values by Asset Class: Evidence from Primary Securities Dealers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 248-278.
    36. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    37. Adam Copeland & Antoine Martin & Michael Walker, 2014. "Repo Runs: Evidence from the Tri-Party Repo Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2343-2380, December.
    38. Grill, Michael & Jakovicka, Julija & Lambert, Claudia & Nicoloso, Pascal & Steininger, Lea & Wedow, Michael, 2017. "Recent Developments in Euro Area Repo Markets, Regulatory Reforms and their Impact on Repo Market Functioning," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    39. Smith, Jonathan Acosta & Grill, Michael & Lang, Jan Hannes, 2017. "The leverage ratio, risk-taking and bank stability," Working Paper Series 2079, European Central Bank.
    40. Arrata, William & Nguyen, Benoît & Rahmouni-Rousseau, Imène & Vari, Miklos, 2020. "The scarcity effect of QE on repo rates: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 837-856.
    41. Dietrich Domanski & Leonardo Gambacorta & Cristina Picillo, 2015. "Central clearing: trends and current issues," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    42. Patrick Schaffner & Angelo Ranaldo & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2019. "Euro repo market functioning: collateral is king," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    43. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Or Shachar, 2017. "Dealer Balance Sheets and Corporate Bond Liquidity Provision," Liberty Street Economics 20170524, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    44. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
    45. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    46. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    47. Bicu, Andreea & Chen, Louisa & Elliott, David, 2017. "The leverage ratio and liquidity in the gilt and repo markets," Bank of England working papers 690, Bank of England, revised 19 Dec 2017.
    48. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    49. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Hua, 1996. "Mean Reversion in Interest Rates: New Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 604-621, November.
    50. Francis A. Longstaff, 2000. "Arbitrage and the Expectations Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 989-994, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Benedikt Ballensiefen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2023. "Safe Asset Carry Trade," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 223-265.
    2. Daisuke Miyakawa & Takemasa Oda & Taihei Sone, 2023. "Regulatory Reforms and Price Heterogeneity in an OTC Derivative Market," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    3. Krohn, Ingomar & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2022. "FX spot and swap market liquidity spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Hüser, Anne-Caroline & Lepore, Caterina & Veraart, Luitgard, 2021. "How does the repo market behave under stress? Evidence from the Covid-19 crisis," Bank of England working papers 910, Bank of England, revised 18 Jun 2021.
    5. Angelo Ranaldo & Benedikt Ballensiefen & Hannah Winterberg, 2020. "Monetary policy disconnect," Working Papers on Finance 2003, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    6. Dr. Robert Oleschak, 2019. "Central Counterparty Auctions and Loss Allocation," Working Papers 2019-06, Swiss National Bank.
    7. Benos, Evangelos & Huang, Wenqian & Menkveld, Albert & Vasios, Michalis, 2019. "The cost of clearing fragmentation," Bank of England working papers 800, Bank of England, revised 22 Nov 2019.
    8. Gerba, Eddie & Katsoulis, Petros, 2021. "The repo market under Basel III," Bank of England working papers 954, Bank of England.
    9. Bassi, Claudio & Behn, Markus & Grill, Michael & Waibel, Martin, 2023. "Window dressing of regulatory metrics: evidence from repo markets," Working Paper Series 2771, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van Horen, Neeltje & Kotidis, Antonios, 2018. "Repo market functioning: The role of capital regulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13090, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Benedikt Ballensiefen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2023. "Safe Asset Carry Trade," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 223-265.
    3. Angelo Ranaldo & Benedikt Ballensiefen & Hannah Winterberg, 2020. "Monetary policy disconnect," Working Papers on Finance 2003, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    4. Bicu-Lieb, Andreea & Chen, Louisa & Elliott, David, 2020. "The leverage ratio and liquidity in the gilt and gilt repo markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    5. He, Zhiguo & Nagel, Stefan & Song, Zhaogang, 2022. "Treasury inconvenience yields during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 57-79.
    6. Corradin, Stefano & Heider, Florian & Hoerova, Marie, 2017. "On collateral: implications for financial stability and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2107, European Central Bank.
    7. Gerba, Eddie & Katsoulis, Petros, 2021. "The repo market under Basel III," Bank of England working papers 954, Bank of England.
    8. Lewis, Kurt F. & Longstaff, Francis A. & Petrasek, Lubomir, 2021. "Asset mispricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 981-1006.
    9. Bicu, Andreea & Chen, Louisa & Elliott, David, 2017. "The leverage ratio and liquidity in the gilt and repo markets," Bank of England working papers 690, Bank of England, revised 19 Dec 2017.
    10. Mario Di Filippo & Angelo Ranaldo & Jan Wrampelmeyer, 2022. "Unsecured and Secured Funding," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 651-662, March.
    11. Gino Cenedese & Pasquale Della Corte & Tianyu Wang, 2021. "Currency Mispricing and Dealer Balance Sheets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2763-2803, December.
    12. William Arrata & Benoit Nguyen & Imene Rahmouni-Rousseau & Miklos Vari, 2018. "The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2018/258, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Julliard, Christian & Pinter, Gabor & Todorov, Karamfil & Yuan, Kathy, 2022. "What drives repo haircuts? Evidence from the UK market," Bank of England working papers 985, Bank of England.
    14. Hüser, Anne-Caroline & Lepore, Caterina & Veraart, Luitgard, 2021. "How does the repo market behave under stress? Evidence from the Covid-19 crisis," Bank of England working papers 910, Bank of England, revised 18 Jun 2021.
    15. Corradin, Stefano & Maddaloni, Angela, 2020. "The importance of being special: Repo markets during the crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 392-429.
    16. Marco Macchiavelli & Xing (Alex) Zhou, 2022. "Funding Liquidity and Market Liquidity: The Broker-Dealer Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3379-3398, May.
    17. Thomas Richter, 2021. "Central Counterparties and Liquidity Provision in Cash Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-26, December.
    18. Aramonte, Sirio & Szerszeń, Paweł J., 2020. "Cross-market liquidity and dealer profitability: Evidence from the bond and CDS markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    19. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Ma, Yiming & Zhang, Anthony Lee, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission in segmented markets," Working Paper Series 2706, European Central Bank.
    20. Cenedese, Gino & Ranaldo, Angelo & Vasios, Michalis, 2020. "OTC premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 86-105.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Repo; Clearing house; EMIR; Basel III; Leverage ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:141:y:2021:i:2:p:750-770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.