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Are Banking Supervisory Data Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasts?

Author

Listed:
  • Feldman Ron J.

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

  • Kim Jan

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

  • Miller Preston J.

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

  • Schmidt Jason E.

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

Abstract

Some argue that central banks can improve monetary policy by including confidential supervisory assessments of banking organizations in their forecasts of inflation and unemployment. In this study we examine the extent to which forecasts of these variables would have been improved with the inclusion of supervisory data. We begin by reproducing the earlier results used to support the claim. We critically examine them and extend the analysis from in-sample to out-of-sample testing. Finally, we check the robustness of our findings by extending the analysis period, using a different methodology to determine the contribution to forecasts, and substituting a different measure of supervisory information. Our analysis does not support claims that confidential supervisory information would have improved forecasts of inflation. Confidential supervisory information improved forecasts of unemployment in some periods. It is unclear, however, if the frequency or level of improvement would have altered monetary policy in a nontrivial way.

Suggested Citation

  • Feldman Ron J. & Kim Jan & Miller Preston J. & Schmidt Jason E., 2003. "Are Banking Supervisory Data Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasts?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:contributions.3:y:2003:i:1:n:3
    DOI: 10.2202/1534-6005.1066
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    Cited by:

    1. Ioannidou, Vasso P., 2005. "Does monetary policy affect the central bank's role in bank supervision?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 58-85, January.
    2. Luis Garicano & Rosa M. Lastra, 2010. "Towards a New Architecture for Financial Stability: Seven Principles," Journal of International Economic Law, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 597-621, September.

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