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Les comportements de consommation des ménages ont-ils été affectés par la crise de 2008 ?. Une analyse économétrique de cinq grands pays développés

Author

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  • Céline Antonin
  • Mathieu Plane
  • Raul Sampognaro

Abstract

Examining the determinants of household consumption, we try to explain its broad evolution in five big industrialized countries (Germany, France, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States) between 1990 and 2015. We show that, since the financial crisis of 2008, classic estimation methods fail to forecast household consumption. We therefore provide a method of panel estimation which takes into account common shocks, provides valid equations and allows us to measure wealth effects including the post crisis period. In accordance to theory, we do not observe any effect on real estate wealth. However, the effect of gross financial wealth is significant in all countries, except from Germany. Classification JEL : C33, C53, E21.

Suggested Citation

  • Céline Antonin & Mathieu Plane & Raul Sampognaro, 2017. "Les comportements de consommation des ménages ont-ils été affectés par la crise de 2008 ?. Une analyse économétrique de cinq grands pays développés," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 177-225.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_151_0177
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    Keywords

    consumption; wealth effects; error correction model; panel data; subprime crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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