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The long memory of newspapers' subscriptions : between the short-run and persistence response

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  • Vidal-Sanz, Jose M.
  • Esteban-Bravo, Mercedes

Abstract

The mainstream of marketing time series analysis has shifted from classical short-range dependence (ARMA, transfer functions and VAR models). However, in cases where purchase decisions entail some commitment (e.g., a subscription selling periodic use of a product or service), sales response entails a long-term effect is not permanent. Long-memory assumes that shocks to a time series have neither a persistent nor a short-run transitory effect, but that they last for a long time and decay slowly with time. Many marketing policies face a short-memory response at the individual customer level but display a considerable degree of persistence at the aggregate level. The aggregation of short-run individual decisions made by heterogeneous customers can show a long-memory pattern. In today's highly competitive newspaper industry, loyal, ongoing customers are a key to obtain stable and long-term profits. Often newspapers obtain a loyal customer base through subscriptions. This paper proposes a long-memory model to study the long-term sales response dynamics in subscription markets. The model accounts for the heterogeneity of the individual responses and distinguishes between both trend and long-memory components pattern of subscriptions. This model permits more accurate predictions of subscription sales than those obtained using persistence models

Suggested Citation

  • Vidal-Sanz, Jose M. & Esteban-Bravo, Mercedes, 2007. "The long memory of newspapers' subscriptions : between the short-run and persistence response," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb076411, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:wb076411
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    2. Marnik G. Dekimpe & Dominique M. Hanssens, 1995. "Empirical Generalizations About Market Evolution and Stationarity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3_supplem), pages 109-121.
    3. Marnik G. Dekimpe & Dominique M. Hanssens, 1995. "The Persistence of Marketing Effects on Sales," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-memory;

    JEL classification:

    • M3 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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