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Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Francois-Michel Boire
  • Thibaut Duprey
  • Alexander Ueberfeldt

Abstract

We incorporate quantile regressions into a structural vector autoregression model to empirically assess how monetary and fiscal policy influence risks around future GDP growth. Using a panel of six developed countries, we find that both policy instruments affect the location of the distribution of future GDP growth, whereas fiscal shocks also impact the shape of the distribution. Fiscal stimulus generates upside risk, paving the path to a faster recovery, especially when the policy rate is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB). Unconventional monetary policy during ZLB episodes has a comparable effect on future GDP growth as conventional monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Francois-Michel Boire & Thibaut Duprey & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2021. "Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution," Staff Working Papers 21-24, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:21-24
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank research; Econometric and statistical methods; Financial stability; Fiscal policy; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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