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Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: an application to Brexit

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  • Hylke Vandenbussche
  • William Connell Garcia
  • Wouter Simons

Abstract

We develop a network trade model with country-sector level input-output linkages with the objective of evaluating trade shocks. This framework includes (1) domestic and global value chain linkages between all country-sectors, (2) trade flows via domestic and foreign sectors to a final destination, (3) value added rather than gross trade flows. The model is applied to the sectoral World Input Output Database (WIOD) to predict the impact of Brexit for every individual EU country by aggregating up the country-sector effects. In contrast to other studies, we find EU-27 job losses to be substantially higher than hitherto believed as a result of the closely integrated EU network structure. Upstream country-sectors stand to lose more from Brexit due to their network centrality.

Suggested Citation

  • Hylke Vandenbussche & William Connell Garcia & Wouter Simons, 2019. "Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: an application to Brexit," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven 635886, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    • Handle: RePEc:ete:ceswps:635886
    Note: paper number DPS 19.04
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