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Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks And Jobs: An Application to Brexit


  • Connell, William
  • Simons, Wouter
  • Vandenbussche, Hylke


This paper develops a gravity model with sector-level input-output linkages in production. In contrast to a traditional gravity approach, which relies on direct gross exports between bilateral trade partners, our model additionally includes (1) domestic and global value chain linkages between goods and services sectors, (2) bilateral tariffs that affect direct production for a final destination as well as indirect production (shipped via third countries) to a final destination and (3) value added rather than gross production. Including input-output linkages implies that domestic production of intermediates can serve as inputs in foreign products and subsequently be exported "indirectly" to a final destination. Our input-output model can be taken to the sectoral World Input Output Database (WIOD) and can be used to evaluate trade policy shocks. While our framework is entirely general, we use it to predict the impact of the UK's withdrawal from the European Union ("Brexit") in terms of value added production and employment for every individual EU country involved. We find that Brexit hits the UK relatively harder than the EU-27. In contrast to other studies, we find EU-27 losses from Brexit to be substantially higher than hitherto believed.

Suggested Citation

  • Connell, William & Simons, Wouter & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2017. "Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks And Jobs: An Application to Brexit," CEPR Discussion Papers 12303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12303

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    Cited by:

    1. Campos, Nauro F., 2019. "B for Brexit: A Survey of the Economics Academic Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12134, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedlacek, 2017. "The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote," Discussion Papers 1738, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Escaith, Hubert, 2018. "Mapping the UK domestic and global value chains from a Brexit perspective," MPRA Paper 87824, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2021. "Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 338-375, February.
    6. Keita, Sekou & Stepanok, Ignat & Vallizadeh, Ehsan, 2020. "Beschäftigungsrelevanz des Handels mit dem Vereinigten Königreich: Exportabhängige Arbeitsplätze sind über Branchen und Regionen ungleich verteilt," IAB-Kurzbericht 202001, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Marina Steininger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2018. "Quantifying Brexit: From Ex Post to Ex Ante Using Structural Gravity," CESifo Working Paper Series 7357, CESifo.
    8. Chad P. Bown, 2018. "Trade Policy Toward Supply Chains After the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(3), pages 602-616, September.
    9. Rocco, Matteo V. & Guevara, Zeus & Heun, Matthew Kuperus, 2020. "Assessing energy and economic impacts of large-scale policy shocks based on Input-Output analysis: Application to Brexit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    10. Catherine Mathieu, 2020. "Brexit: what economic impacts does the literature anticipate?," Post-Print hal-03403036, HAL.
    11. Christine Arriola & Caitlyn Carrico & David Haugh & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Donal Smith & Frank van Tongeren & Ben Westmore, 2018. "The Potential Macroeconomic and Sectoral Consequences of Brexit on Ireland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1508, OECD Publishing.
    12. Catherine Mathieu, 2020. "Brexit: what economic impacts does the literature anticipate?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2jt9boop748, Sciences Po.
    13. Benjamin Born & Gernot J Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2019. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2722-2744.

    More about this item


    Armington; Brexit; global value chains; input-output linkages; sectors; WIOD;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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