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The continental divide? Economic exposure to Brexit in regions and countries on both sides of The Channel

Author

Listed:
  • Wen Chen
  • Bart Los
  • Philip McCann
  • Raquel Ortega‐Argilés
  • Mark Thissen
  • Frank van Oort

Abstract

In this paper we employ an extension of the World Input‐Output Database (WIOD) with regional detail for EU countries to study the degree to which EU regions and countries are exposed to negative trade‐related consequences of Brexit. We develop an index of this exposure, which incorporates all effects due to geographically fragmented production processes within the UK, the EU and beyond. Our findings demonstrate that UK regions are far more exposed than regions in other countries. Only regions in the Republic of Ireland face exposure levels similar to some UK regions, while the next most affected regions are in Germany, The Netherlands, Belgium and France. This imbalance may influence the outcomes of the negotiations between the UK and the EU. En este artículo se emplea una extensión de la Base de Datos Mundial de Input‐Output (WIOD, por sus siglas en inglés) con detalles regionales para los países de la UE, con el fin de estudiar en qué medida están expuestas las regiones y los países de la UE a las consecuencias negativas de Brexit relacionadas con el comercio. Se desarrolla un índice de esta exposición, que incorpora todos los efectos debidos a los procesos de producción fragmentados geográficamente dentro del Reino Unido, la UE y el resto del mundo. Los hallazgos demuestran que las regiones del Reino Unido están mucho más expuestas que las regiones de otros países. Tan solo las regiones de la República de Irlanda se enfrentan a niveles de exposición similares a algunas de las regiones del Reino Unido, mientras que las siguientes regiones más afectadas se encuentran en Alemania, los Países Bajos, Bélgica y Francia. Este desequilibrio puede influir en los resultados de las negociaciones entre el Reino Unido y la UE. 本稿では、EU加盟国の地域の詳細情報を加えた、拡張版World Input‐Output Database (WIOD) を使用して、EU内の地域およびEU加盟国が、貿易に関してブレグジッド(Brexit:イギリスのEU離脱)の悪影響をどの程度受けているかを検討する。本稿では、イギリス国内、EU内、さらに広範囲に地理的に分断されている生産プロセスによるあらゆる効果を組み込んだ、ブレグジッドの影響の程度を示す指標を作成する。結果から、イギリスの地域は他の国の地域よりも悪影響をはるかに大きく受けていることが示される。アイルランド共和国の地域のみが、イギリスの一部の地域に近いレベルで悪影響を受けており、ドイツ、オランダ、ベルギー、フランス、以上の各国の地域がこれに続く。この不均衡はイギリスとEU間の交渉の結果に影響する可能性がある。

Suggested Citation

  • Wen Chen & Bart Los & Philip McCann & Raquel Ortega‐Argilés & Mark Thissen & Frank van Oort, 2018. "The continental divide? Economic exposure to Brexit in regions and countries on both sides of The Channel," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(1), pages 25-54, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:97:y:2018:i:1:p:25-54
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12334
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    Cited by:

    1. Gallegati, Mauro & Giammetti, Raffaele & Russo, Alberto, 2019. "Key sectors in Input-Output Production Networks: an application to Brexit," MPRA Paper 92559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Raffaele Giammetti, 2019. "Tariffs, Domestic Import Substitution and Trade Diversion in Input-Output Production Networks: how to deal with Brexit," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 152, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    3. repec:esr:qecsas:2019:spring:bergin is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki & Kuusi, Tero, 2019. "Brexit and Indirect Impact Routes through Global Value Chains," ETLA Reports 89, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    5. repec:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:14:p:3800-:d:247448 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Giammetti, Raffaele, 2019. "Tariffs, Domestic Import Substitution and Trade Diversion in Input-Output Production Networks: how to deal with Brexit," MPRA Paper 92835, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Silvio Traverso, 2019. "Globalization, robotization and electoral outcomes: Evidence from spatial regressions for Italy," DEM Working Papers 2019/5, Department of Economics and Management.

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