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Modelling the number of road accidents of uninsured drivers and their severity

Author

Listed:
  • Jiri Prochazka

    (University of Economics, Prague)

  • Matej Camaj

    (University of Economics, Prague)

Abstract

The main aim of the presentation is to discuss methods which can be used for modelling the number of daily road accidents of uninsured drivers and their claim severity i.e. the average claim per accident. Modelling of such events is relevant for institutions such as the insurance companies, national insurers? bureau etc. The proposed model consists of three parts. The first part models deterministic seasonality with special focus given on daily seasonality. Daily seasonality is usually considered as seasonality with long seasonal period, so we will use approaches based on basis expansion. The second part characterizes the impact of other deterministic variables such as long-term trend and other external variables. The last part of the model is an error term part the purpose of which is to capture residual randomness of the model. Because of the character of the time series, GARMA model will be used to capture the error term part.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiri Prochazka & Matej Camaj, 2017. "Modelling the number of road accidents of uninsured drivers and their severity," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 5408040, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:sek:iacpro:5408040
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    File URL: https://iises.net/proceedings/32nd-international-academic-conference-geneva/table-of-content/detail?cid=54&iid=035&rid=8040
    File Function: First version, 2017
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    Cited by:

    1. Gorzelanczyk Piotr & Tylicki Henryk, 2023. "Forecasting the Number of Road Accidents in Poland Depending on the Day of the Week using Neural Networks," LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 35-42, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    road accidents; long seasonal period modelling; basis expansion; GARMA models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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